What Next for Iran After Khamenei? Three Scenarios India Must Watch | CUET Analysis

International Relations | Geopolitics

Date: 2 March 2026  |  Source: The Indian Express (Shubhajit Roy), 2 March 2026

Tags: Iran, Khamenei, IRGC, Assembly of Experts, Supreme Leader, Middle East, India Foreign Policy

After Khamenei’s death, Iran faces three scenarios: regime continuity, IRGC takeover, or collapse. Understand India’s strategic stakes and the succession race for CUET Polity.

For 45 of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s 47 years in existence, Ali Khamenei held near-absolute power over Iran’s internal and external politics. His death in a US-Israel airstrike has thrown the Iranian regime into an unprecedented situation. As Shubhajit Roy writes in The Indian Express: “In geopolitics, there are decades when weeks happen and weeks when decades happen.” This is one of those moments — the seismic killing shows that history can move suddenly, reshaping an entire region overnight.

To understand what comes next, one must understand how Iran got here:

• 1979: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led the Iranian Revolution, ousting the Pahlavi dynasty and establishing the Islamic Republic.
• 1981: Ali Khamenei became Iran’s President — a largely ceremonial role at the time.
• 1989: After Khomeini’s death, Khamenei was elevated to the position of Supreme Leader — Iran’s highest authority.

Under Khamenei, Iran transformed into a theocratic powerhouse: building the “Axis of Resistance” — a network of regional proxies including Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Houthis (Yemen), and militias in Iraq and Syria. Internally, Khamenei crushed dissent — the most recent example being the protests of December and January, involving thousands of Iranians in Isfahan, Tehran, and Shiraz.

Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations and elsewhere have outlined three possible paths for Iran:

▸ Scenario 1: Continuity in the Regime

The regime has already established a three-member transitional council to oversee the transition:

1. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi
2. President Masoud Pezeshkian
3. Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei

The 88-member Assembly of Experts will pick Khamenei’s successor. This is considered the most likely short-term scenario — an orderly succession with the clerical establishment maintaining control.

▸ Scenario 2: Military Takeover by the IRGC

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as the regime’s “lynchpin.” It controls Iran’s military, intelligence, and much of its economy. A formal IRGC takeover is possible, with former parliament speaker Ali Larijani cited as a potential figurehead. However, the IRGC’s failure to protect Khamenei and the regime’s top brass has damaged its credibility.

▸ Scenario 3: Regime Collapse

A collapse is the objective of the Donald Trump administration and was anticipated by the Israeli leadership. However, toppling a regime from 30,000 feet — even with surgical airstrikes — is not easy, especially in a country almost half India’s size but with just 1/15th of its population. For the common people to overthrow the IRGC and the Basij paramilitary, they would need arms, logistics, and leadership — none of which is currently available.

Key contenders for Supreme Leader include:

• Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohsen Qomi: Key adviser in Khamenei’s office.
• Ayatollah Mohsen Araki: Long-time member of the Assembly of Experts.
• Ayatollah Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei: Head of Iran’s judiciary.
• Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri: Qom Friday prayer leader.
• Hassan Khomeini: Grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder — could step in at a pivotal moment.
• Mojtaba Khamenei: Son of the slain leader — described as the “dark horse” candidate, though he ruled him out earlier.

Iran’s turmoil has direct implications for India on multiple fronts:

• Diaspora Security: India has around 9 million diaspora members in the Gulf and Middle East. These blue-collar workers are the sole breadwinners for families in Kerala, UP, Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha. Over a third of India’s remittances come from the Middle East and Gulf.
• Energy Security: Around 60% of India’s oil imports and 70% of LNG imports come from this region. Any disruption is catastrophic for India’s economy.
• Diplomatic Balancing: India has maintained good relations with Iran (Chabahar Port, economic ties), the Gulf Arab states, Israel, and the US. This multi-directional diplomacy will be severely tested.

As the article concludes: “India’s diplomatic abilities will be tested as it navigates the current turmoil.” India will have to think of a Plan B after the Supreme Leader’s killing.