US and Israel May Not Be Prepared for Iran’s Resilience | CUET Current Affairs Analysis

International Relations | Geopolitics

Date: 3 March 2026  |  Source: The Indian Express (Anju Gupta), 3 March 2026 — Ideas Page

Tags: US-Israel-Iran Conflict, Strait of Hormuz, Iran Resilience, IRGC, Supreme Leader Succession, Middle East Crisis, India Energy Security, IAEA, Nuclear Facilities

Anju Gupta argues that despite the massive US-Israel military offensive — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and strikes on nuclear facilities — Iran has demonstrated unexpected resilience. The regime is holding together, launching counter-offensives, and initiating a constitutional succession process. For CUET aspirants, this article is essential for understanding international relations, geopolitics, and India’s energy security challenges.

The second round of the US-Israel offensive against Iran began in the early hours of February 28, 2026, following weeks of a massive buildup of American firepower in West Asia. Much like the events preceding the 12-day conflict in June 2025, US-Iran talks had reached an advanced stage — the two countries were apparently moving towards parallel technical deliberations on security concerns and inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

However, as Anju Gupta writes in The Indian Express, the strikes targeted coordinated complexes housing the Supreme Leader, government ministries, and the Atomic Energy Organisation in Tehran. Supreme Leader Imam Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top officials, including the IRGC chief Major General Mohammad Pakpour, and defence councillor Ali Shamkhani, were killed in the attacks.

Despite the devastating strikes, Iran launched a massive counter-offensive within hours. The Iranian regime has vowed to “avenge the martyrdom of the Supreme Leader” and has responded with successive waves of aerial attacks — both conventional missile strikes and drone deployments targeting US and allied military positions in the region.

The IRGC’s forces, including coastal and naval units, have effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global petroleum passes daily. Iran’s IRGC commander declared the strait “closed” and warned that any vessel attempting passage would be “set ablaze.”

One of the most significant developments highlighting Iran’s resilience is the initiation of a constitutional succession process. Despite the chaos of active conflict, Iran has activated its institutional framework:

• The Assembly of Experts will appoint a new Supreme Leader
• A transitional council comprising the President, head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council — selected by the Expediency Discernment Council — has assumed the duties of the Supreme Leader
• The Iranian regime has been speaking of a succession plan since the 12-day war

This institutional continuity suggests the regime had contingency plans in place and is far more organized than its adversaries may have anticipated.

Gupta raises a critical question: Did the US and Israel cross a line by targeting the Supreme Leader without being prepared for the fallout? She identifies several factors that make Iran’s response more formidable than expected:

• National Unity: Rather than weakening the regime, the killings may instead unite a population that had, until recently, been engaged in significant street protests over economic conditions and political repression
• Military Capability: The Iranian regime has demonstrated considerable resilience through aerial attacks on Israeli targets and harassment of naval vessels associated with the US across the Persian Gulf
• Regional Support Network: Iran’s allies in the region — including forces in Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia — have been linked to retaliatory strikes on US and allied positions
• Nuclear Card: Both the US and Israel have framed the offensive in terms that suggest regime change as an objective. However, developments suggest that the Islamic Republic has moved quickly to ensure continuity

The article carries significant implications for India, which CUET aspirants must understand:

• Energy Security: India imports approximately 60% of its oil from the Middle East and over 50% of its LNG from Gulf sources. The Strait of Hormuz closure directly threatens India’s energy supplies
• Oil Price Impact: Brent crude has surged 10–13%, with analysts warning of prices reaching $100+ per barrel. This will increase India’s import bill, widen the current account deficit, and fuel domestic inflation
• Diaspora Safety: India has approximately 9 million diaspora members in the Gulf region — predominantly workers whose safety is a major diplomatic concern
• Diplomatic Balancing Act: India must navigate between its strategic partnership with the US and Israel on one hand, and its energy and trade ties with Iran and Gulf states on the other
• Shipping Disruption: Major container companies (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) have suspended Hormuz transits, forcing reroutes around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope — adding weeks to transit times